Improvement is an important part of sports. Coaches, parents and players often like to say that a particular athlete is only going to get better. But what does that really mean? It seems obvious, right? It’s not. Let’s look at what it really means and why it matters.

There are really two categories of improvement, arithmetic and geometric. (There’s actually a third, no or negligible improvement. We’ll ignore that, as it speaks for itself). For the purpose of this blog, arithmetic is defined as a straight line with a gradual upward direction. Geometric is a line that goes up more quickly or even curves upward.

If an athlete is improving arithmetically, that’s important, but it’s not saying that much. In a competitive world, it’s a given. Most athletes are going to get better arithmetically, so this really just means an athlete is keeping up with the competition. If athlete’s are not improving, they’re falling behind.

Geometric improvement is what catapults some athletes past others. It’s that really surprising type of improvement, a transcendent improvement that is sometimes out of the control of the athlete, regardless of effort and time spent on improving. It’s the type of change in ability that causes everyone around to reexamine and reassess players, teams, even leagues. That’s the type of improvement that’s really worth talking about.

Failing to understand and differentiate between arithmetic and geometric improvement leads to the inability to accurately understand and predict why certain athletes will have more success than others.